When the Obama Administration came into office, the situation in Afghanistan was grave and deteriorating. For more than seven years, we had been fighting without a coherent strategy and without the resources and policies necessary to defeat the Taliban and al Qaeda threat. Violence in Afghanistan had reached record levels, the Taliban insurgency had made a dramatic comeback and our intelligence community warned that the country was in a “downward spiral.”[1]

 

Sixteen months later, the situation is markedly different. Not only do we have a fully-resourced, comprehensive civil-military strategy in place, we are beginning to witness signs of real progress toward securing key parts of the country and turning the tide against a resurgent Taliban. While realistic about the critical challenges ahead, military leaders and top Administration officials consider the recent success of U.S.-led operations in Helmand Province a strong indication that we are moving in the right direction. As Defense Undersecretary for Policy Michele Flournoy recently underscored, “we are seeing conditions beginning to develop that we believe will ultimately be necessary for success. And for the first time we believe we have the right mission, the right strategy, the right leadership, and the right level of resources in support of the mission.”[2]

 

 

 

 

After years of neglect, the Obama Administration has made the fight against the Taliban and al Qaeda terrorists a central national security priority. The Obama Administration took immediate, decisive action to right our course and ensure sustained attention on the threat from the Taliban and al Qaeda terrorists. In January 2009, the President ordered a full-scale review of U.S. policies in the region and named Richard Holbrooke a special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan; by February he announced plans to commit an additional 21,000 troops and military trainers to Afghanistan; in March, he outlined a new, comprehensive counterterrorism strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan and appointed General McChrystalas the Commander of ISAF; and in December, he announced further revisions to the strategy and authorized the deployment of 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan.

 

The Administration has put in place a fully resourced, comprehensive civil-military strategy to reverse the Taliban and al Qaeda momentum. The President developed and has moved to implement a comprehensive plan to integrate military, civilian, and intelligence resources toward a clear and narrowly defined goal: “to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and to prevent its capacity to threaten America and our allies in the future.”

 



 



 



 



 

 

oRevised counter-narcotics policies. In June, Ambassador Holbrooke testified that the Administration was moving to implement a new approach to counter-narcotics, focused on improved law enforcement and drug interdiction efforts along with a“massive” increase in our agriculture programs. In his testimony, Holbrooke stated, stated “we’re not downgrading narcotics. We’re downgrading crop eradication and upgrading agriculture.”[11]

 

oExpanded agriculture initiatives –to convince farmers to grow alternate crops and to help build a viable economy and improve quality of life for the Afghan people. The Obama Administration has moved to adopt a new, interagency strategy that places agriculture at the forefront of our development efforts in Afghanistan. With eight in ten Afghans employed in agriculture, farming, or herding, there is widespread consensus that rebuilding the country’s agriculture sector is critical to developing the Afghan economy, combating the drug trade, and overcoming poverty and instability – and, undoubtedly, necessary to achieve our fundamental mission there. The Afghan government has welcomed this new approach. In its April 2009 draft development plan, Afghanistan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock asserted that “Agriculture will determine whether Afghanistan will succeed or fail.”[12]

 

 

With the New Strategy in Place, There is Evidence That We are Beginning to Turn the Tide and Reverse Taliban Momentum

 

While there remain difficult challenges ahead in targeting Taliban-controlled regions and in holding and building areas as they are cleared by U.S. and international forces, the initial operations in Helmand Province point to the early success of the Administration’s fully integrated civilian and military strategy in Afghanistan. In a recent media roundtable, General McChrystal asserted that “We’re making progress, and I’ve got confidence we’re going to make a lot more.”[14]

 

Progress in regaining the momentum against the Taliban. The sweeping U.S.-led military offensive, announced by President Obama in December, is in its initial stages but already beginning to show some signs of progress in regaining the momentum against the insurgency. The success of operations in Helmand – the area “where the insurgency had the most safe haven, the most succor” – has been lauded by Pentagon officials and military leaders as a key first step in turning the tide against the Taliban. General Petraeus, head of U.S. Central Command has described the offensive in Helmand as the “initial operation of what will be a 12-to-18 month campaign”– with the aim of eliminating Taliban strongholds, building popular support, and creating the framework for enduring security in Afghanistan. As Defense Undersecretary for Policy, Michele Flournoy asserted, “General McChrystal has talked about this being a war of perception. So – and I think Marjah, you know, is an opening salvo. It is a first step. It is designed to create –to begin to create that shift in momentum.”[15]

 

Progress in removing the Taliban from key population areas.

 

·Now Zad. In December, a Marine-led offensive successfully cleared the Taliban from the city of Now Zad – a part of Helmand Province that, for more than four years, had been no-go zone for U.S. and Afghan forces. It was the first major military operation since President Obama announced a revised strategy and the deployment of 30,000 additional forces. In a recent tour of the city with Secretary Gates, the commander of the Marines in Southern Afghanistan, Brig. General Larry Nicholson, hailed “the rebirth of a city that had been dead.” He reported that 30,000 residents have returned since U.S. forces pushed the Taliban out of the area, calling their return an “incredible event”and noting that, “if we were here five months ago, we’d be under mortar barrage.” Secretary Gates asserted that progress there “reinforced that the path we’re on is the right one, but also that it’s going to take awhile – and be complicated.”[16]

 

·Helmand Province. On February 13, an estimated 15,000 U.S., Afghan, and NATO forces launched a military offensive in Taliban-controlled areas of Helmand Province. Termed Operation Moshtarak, the campaign’s main focus has been Marjah, which for several years had been controlled by Taliban militants and corrupt drug traffickers. Although the military portion of the operation is ongoing and civilian efforts continue to ramp up to ensure long-term security in the region, the initial phase of operations has been declared to be largely successful, with the majority of the area cleared of the Taliban by U.S., Afghan, British, and Danish forces. In a recent press conference, GeneralMcChrystal stated that he is “pleased with where we are” but still noted that the longer-term phases of holding and building the area remain a “significant task in front of us.”[17]

 

·Kandahar. Military leaders have planned a major offensive in Kandahar this summer, Afghanistan’s second largest city and the birthplace and traditional stronghold of the Taliban. Admiral Michael Mullen has described the upcoming operations as “the cornerstone of our surge effort and the key to shifting the momentum.” Although a influx of an additional 10,000 U.S. troops are not expected to arrive until June, much of the groundwork for the Kandahar offensive is already underway. For months U.S. and Afghan forces have been patrolling the area around the city to stop Taliban from infiltrating the area. Special Forces and CIA task forces also have been conducting targeted raids, which, according to media reports, have led to the capture of more than 70 mid-level Taliban commanders and killed dozens of others over the past two months. At the same time, efforts have been made to reach out to local leaders and populations in the effort to gain support and buy-in for U.S.-led efforts. Admiral Mullen traveled to Kandahar earlier this month to hold a town hall discussion with local leaders and a series of sub-district shuras are reportedly being planned for the spring. As Steve Collrecently described in the New Yorker, “The plan is attempt to reduce violence and civilian casualties by organizing a rolling series of sub-districtshuras in the hope that local power brokers will‘invite’ international forces to enter and set up control, and will at the same time ‘invite’ the Taliban to scoot. To the extent that this pre-negotiating of clearing operations succeeds, not all of the Kandahar campaign may require a lot of shooting.”[18]

 

Even as we work to gain popular support for the U.S. and NATO campaign, Admiral Mullen and General McChrystalhave been clear that the fight in Kandahar will be difficult and require time and persistence. The spike in Taliban attacks in recent weeks is seen as an indication of the challenges ahead.[19]

 

Progress in undermining the capacity and influence of the Taliban. In a recent media roundtable discussion, General McChrystal described the impact of U.S.-led efforts to target senior Taliban leaders and weaken the group’s operational capacity, “What we do see is a loss of confidence on many leaders to come inside Afghanistan and lead from the front, and when you can’t lead from the front, ultimately you have a difficult time leading at all, and then additionally we see some less mature and less seasoned leaders around the areas and that weakens them, but it hasn’t hit a point where I think they’ve suddenly got a leadership vacuum.”[20]

 

Progress toward building enduring security. The Obama Administration has placed central focus on efforts to hold and build areas after they are cleared by military forces. As General McChrystal has underscored, the Marjahoffensive was designed with plans to bring in an Afghan government and police force – a “government in a box” – and also leave behind some U.S. and British troops to help maintain security. In recent testimony, Secretary Clinton described the effective civilian effort in Marjahto hold, build, and transition the area: “Our civilians were on the ground within hours and days of the military operation. They quickly stood up a district support team that has helped already to open two schools and a prosecutor’s office. They’ve registered more than 7,000 farmers to begin receiving supplies for licit crops. They’ve employed more than 1,000 residents a day to cash-for-work projects. A nearby USAID-built air strip has allowed the ministry of agriculture officials to reach Marjah’sfarmers and a USAID contract is paying a woman-owned Afghan firm to rebuild the highway.”[21]

 

While we are making overall progress, U.S. and NATO officials underscore that it will take time to build the framework for long-term security and put in place an effective local government. In a recent trip to Marjah, Mark Sedwill,NATO’s senior civilian representative praised the unprecedented civilian effort while also noting that, “We’re still moving forward more slowly than the people would like.” Officials say that the U.S. and NATO are still working to achieve central goals in Marjahwhile the government is still working to put in place basic services and gain the support of the local populations.[22]

 

Progress in building capacity and beginning to shift responsibility to the Afghan government and security forces. In a March press conference with Secretary Gates, Afghan Defense Minister Wardak described an increasingly effective partnership with the U.S. and international community that is laying the groundwork for transitioning security responsibility to the Afghan forces. He stated,“…we have achieved a partnership, which we have never managed before. We have all the – all the part of the team, that is, a lot of integration of planning, sharing of intelligence and I think this partnership will further strengthen as the time passes. And we do hope that sometime by the end of this year or the next year, we will be able to commence the transition from ISAF security to our security.”[23] However, even as Afghan forces have made progress, the U.S. military continues to work with them to improve their performance in future fights.

 

·Afghan forces have assumed a significantly larger role in U.S.-led military operations. As Secretary Gates recently underscored, “when the Marines first went into the south last summer, the partnering with the Afghans was about nine Americans to every Afghan. Now, in the Marja [sic] operation, it’s three Americans for every two Afghans.” According to military officials, approximately 5,000 Afghan soldiers fought alongside U.S. and international troops in Operation Moshtarak – a nearly tenfold increase from the 650 Afghan forces who fought in operations in the south this summer. An ISAF spokesman attributed the significant rise to greater numbers and increased training of the Afghan National Army, as well as increased resolve on the part of the Afghan government to go after Taliban strongholds.[24]

 

·Afghan forces are doing a better job of taking the lead in military operations, with many Afghan units being deployed to the front lines. As one report described, “So far in the Marjah fight, Afghan security forces were among the troops airdropped behind enemy lines in the operation’s opening gambit. Afghan forces also led one of the shuras – or meetings with locals – that commanders on the ground have been told to hold as soon as ground in cleared.” Putting forward an Afghan face to our military efforts, analysts say, is key to gaining the support of the local population. And as General Nicholson emphasized, Afghan forces “are such force multipliers, because as you move through areas, they see things we’ll never see. They understand intuitively what’s going on in an area that we’ll just never get, no matter how much cultural training our guys get. So they are absolutely essential.” [25]

 

Even as the performance of Afghan Army continues to improve and its forces have shown an unprecedented willingness to fight, reports from the field also suggest Afghan soldiers remain dependent on U.S. and NATO forces to take the lead in many key aspects of combat operations. In recent testimony, Secretary Gates asserted that he and top military commanders are aware of these shortcomings and working to further bolster our training effort. The Secretary discussed the President’s request for an additional $2.6 billion in funding for Fiscal Year 2010 to strengthen the Afghan security forces, emphasizing that “successfully accomplishing the training mission represents both our exit strategy and the key for long-term stability in Afghanistan.”[26]

 

·Afghan government officials are playing increasingly active roles in planning and authorizing military operations. Lieutenant General John Paxton described the unprecedented involvement of the Afghan government in operations in Helmand Province: “Operation Moshtarakis the first operation in Afghanistan where coalition planning has been fully integrated with our Afghan partners from the very start. This program is being integrated at all levels from the provincial government led my Governor Mangal all the way up to the national level in Kabul. It should be noted that the planning was not confined to just Afghan security forces. Planning for Operation Moshtarak was integrated with other efforts throughout the Afghan government. PresidentKarzai was briefed himself on these operations, and now has cabinet level ownership of the operation itself.”[27]

 

In discussion upcoming operations in Kandahar, General McChrystal and his top advisors have asserted that they will use this same template to incorporate local Afghan leaders and civilians. In the words of Ambassador Mark Sedwill, NATO Representative in Afghanistan, “Just as in Marjah, what we need to do is bring the local people into both having a sense of ownership of the government agenda, but also having some control and influence over it.”[28]

 

·Afghan Police and intelligence officers have grown increasingly capable of thwarting Taliban plots. Last week, Afghan police prevented a major attack in Kabul. According to AdbulGhafar, deputy commander of the Afghan National Police crisis unit, his forces stopped five would-be suicide bombers believed to be associated with the al-Qaeda-linked Haqqaninetwork from targeting crowded areas of downtown Kabul. Ghafar touted improved intelligence and training as key to his forces growing effectiveness, asserting that “Our ability to uncover such plots is improving day by day.”[29]

 

Progress in building support for Afghan security forces and enhancing the legitimacy of governance institutions.

 

 

 

 

Progress in countering the drug trade. According to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), opium seizures rose nearly ten-fold last year due to more effective cooperation between Afghan and international forces. Officials report that the DEA now has 96 agents operating in the country, working with Afghan counterparts and NATO forces in more than 80 joint operations over the past year. Their mission is integrated in the U.S.-led military effort, moving with U.S. forces in Helmand Province and eventually to other provinces in the south. The DEA also is working to support, train, and equip three specialized units within the Counternarcotics Police of Afghanistan. At the same time, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) reported that opium poppy cultivation decreased by 22 percent from 2008 to 2009, with improved security and governance in certain parts of the country cited as a key reason for the decline.[33]

 

Additionally, the Administration’s shift in emphasis away from eradication and new focus on improved law enforcement and drug interdiction has led to the arrest of several high-value Afghan drug traffickers. The State Department recently reported that the Administration’s justice reform initiatives and efforts to build up the capacity of the Afghan government’s Criminal Justice Task Force (CJTF) over the past year – through increased mentoring by Department of Justice Senior Legal Advisors and additional funding and resources – has “allowed the CJTF to prosecute higher value targets.” From March 2008 to March 2009, the CJTF handled nearly 400 cases, convicting many top Afghan drug traffickers, including Haji Khostel,“charged with masterminding one of the largest heroin production and trafficking operations in Nimroz Province;” Haji Abdullah, “reported head of a major drug organization in Nimroz Province,” linked to 1.7 tons of heroin, 4.1 tons of raw opium, and 2.7 tons of heroin processing chemicals; and eight other former enemy combatants charged with possession of narcotics as well as weapons.[34]

 

Progress in building an international coalition for advancing counterterrorism efforts and building sustainable security in Afghanistan.

 

 

oNATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen recently noted that 35 countries have announced increases in their troop commitments in Afghanistan in response to President Obama’s December announcement for 30,000 additional U.S. troops.

 

oIn late March, G8 foreign ministers announced an Afghanistan-Pakistan economic “initiative” that would invest in infrastructure and build commercial activity in the border region. The plan was developed in consultation with the Afghan and Pakistani governments as well as the World Bank and Asian Development Bank.[36]

 

oAs a recent Pentagon report noted,“ISAF has taken steps to enhance greater military coordination and cooperation among ISAF, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.” It has established the Tripartite Joint Intelligence Operation Center to oversee cross-border coordination. Under this effort, ISAF officers and Afghan and Pakistan military personnel participated in Combined Campaign Planning Conferences in January to enhance future cooperation in addressing threats along the Afghanistan and Pakistan border.[37]

 

Despite the significant increase in international commitments and cooperation in support of the U.S.-led mission in Afghanistan over the past year, there are key areas where further progress is necessary. The Administration continues to work to fill in the shortfall of trainers for the Afghan security forces – a program that had been seriously under-resourced under the previous Administration. While many NATO countries have dramatically stepped up their pledges for the training program over the past year, some have proven slow in fulfilling their entire commitments, and overall pledges have yet to meet the stated need for trainers. NATO officials say that the training effort is now 450 people short of the goal to supply 2,000 trainers for the Afghan National Police force by October and there also are upwards of 800 slots that NATO countries have pledged to fill, but are not yet in Afghanistan. This week, Secretary Gates announced plans to send an additional 850 American military personnel to Afghanistan as a stopgap measure, to give certain countries more time to fulfill their pledges while ensuring that we meet immediate training program needs. Defense Secretary Gates as well as Secretary Clinton have continued to push for further commitments and have expressed confidence that our NATO ISAF allies will step in to meet the requirements by October. So while there has been dramatic progress in advancing a broad, international effort in Afghanistan, there is more progress than can and must be made.[38]

 


 

 

 


[1]National Intelligence Estimate, 7/17/07; McClatchy, 10/14/08; New York Times, 10/8/08.

[2]Defense Undersecretary for Policy Michele Flournoy, Testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, 2/22/10.

[3]DOD News Briefing with Gen. McChrystal and Ambassador Sedwill from Afghanistan, 3/17/10.

[4]Secretary Gates, Testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee, 3/25/10.

[5]Secretary Clinton, Testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee, 3/25/10.

[6]Secretary Clinton, Testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee, 3/25/10.

[7]Armed Forces Press Service, 3/29/10, 2/4/10;New York Times, 7/11/09; Department of Defense, Report on Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan, 4/10.

[8]Washington Post, 7/11/09; Secretary Gates, Testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee, 3/25/10.

[9]Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen, Press Conference, 5/11/09.

[10]Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 6/30/09; General McChrystal’sInitial Guidance, 6/13/09.

[11]Ambassador Holbrooke, Testimony before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, 6/25/09.

[12]Council on Foreign Relations, 5/26/09.

[13]Remarks by the President in Address to the Nation on the Way Forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan, 12/1/09.

[14]Media Roundtable with General McChrystal,4/2/10.

[15]New York Times, 2/22/10; General Petraeus, Meet the Press, 2/21/10; Defense Undersecretary for Policy Michele Flournoy, Testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, 2/22/10.

[16]New York Times, 3/9/10; Washington Post, 3/10/10.

[17]DOD News Briefing with Gen. McChrystaland Ambassador Sedwill from Afghanistan, 3/17/10.

[18]USA Today, 3/21/10; New Yorker, 4/2/10.

[19]Associated Press, 4/27/10; New York Times, 4/25/10.

[20]Media Roundtable with General McChrystal,4/2/10.

[21]Secretary Clinton, Testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee, 3/25/10.

[22]Associated Press, 4/27/10.

[23]Press Conference with Secretary Gates and Minister of Defense Wardak from Afghanistan, 3/10/10.

[24]Secretary Gates, Testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee, 3/25/10.

[25]Christian Science Monitor, 2/15/10.

[26]NPR, 3/2/10; New York Times, 2/20/10; Secretary Gates, Testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee, 3/25/10.

[27]Lieutenant General John Paxton, Testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, 2/22/10.

[28]Associated Press, 3/8/10.

[29]Associated Press, 4/8/10.

[30]New York Times, 3/15/10; Defense Undersecretary for Policy Michele Flournoy, Testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, 2/22/10.

[31]Department of Defense, Report on Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan, 4/10.

[32]Defense Undersecretary for Policy Michele Flournoy and Lieutenant General John Paxton, Testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, 2/22/10.

[33]Associated Press, 4/1/10; Department of Defense, Report on Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan, 4/10.

[34]Department of State, 2010 International Narcotics Strategy Control Report, 3/1/10.

[35]Secretary Gates, Testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee, 3/25/10.

[36]AFP, 3/29/10.

[37]Department of Defense, Report on Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan, 4/10.

[38]NPR, 4/27/10; Secretary Gates, Press Conference, 3/10/10; General McChrystal, Press briefing, 3/17/10; Secretary Gates, testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee, 3/25/10; Secretary Clinton testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee, 3/25/10; New York Times, 5/3/10.